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Saturday, February 22, 2025

Trump's tariff policy raises questions about USMCA's future

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Chris Griswold Policy Director | American Compass

Chris Griswold Policy Director | American Compass

Less than a month into his second term, President Donald Trump's trade policy is generating significant discussion. The administration's approach raises questions about the role of tariffs: Are they intended to rebalance trade, raise revenue, or reduce economic ties with China? Or are they simply a tool for negotiating concessions from both allies and adversaries?

According to Trump and his top economic advisors, the answer encompasses all these aspects. Over the next four years, the administration plans to use tariffs to achieve these objectives as part of a broader goal to reform or establish a new international trading system.

This strategy has led to market unrest, particularly during tariff disputes involving Mexico, Canada, and China. Despite initial concerns, the resulting policy—an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods and increased scrutiny of de minimis shipments—is seen by some as reasonable and indicative of a calculated approach.

Critics remain skeptical. Some argue that tariffs are inherently negative or should only protect industries linked to national security. Concerns have also been raised about the implications for North American trade flows. Critics question whether Trump understands that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is his own negotiated replacement for NAFTA and whether his tariff threats could jeopardize it.

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